Fed Decision in July?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Federal Open Market Committee will convene in July 2026 to set monetary policy. This market resolves based on the basis-point change to the upper bound of the target federal funds rate announced at that meeting, rounded to the nearest 25bp increment if necessary. A 92% crowd probability of a decision occurring reflects near-certainty that the FOMC will announce a rate adjustment rather than hold steady—a meaningful distinction, since "no change" would resolve to 0bp.

Historical FOMC behaviour provides calibration. Between 2022 and 2023, the Committee moved in 25bp increments during tightening cycles, then shifted to 50bp moves during accelerated phases. By mid-2024, as inflation moderated, the Committee signalled a pivot toward cuts. The current 92% probability suggests markets are pricing a high likelihood of either a cut or a hike announcement, with the specific magnitude uncertain. Comparable July meetings in recent cycles have produced decisions roughly 70–80% of the time when economic data remained contested; the elevated probability here signals confidence in a material policy shift.

Traders should monitor June employment reports, core PCE inflation data, and Fed communications in the weeks preceding the July meeting. The Fed's own forward guidance and any interim statements from Chair Powell will shape expectations around both the direction and magnitude of adjustment. Programmatically, this market rewards conditional orders triggered on specific CPI or jobs releases, since those catalysts typically narrow the range of plausible outcomes. Settlement occurs 29 July 2026, allowing traders to position ahead of the announcement and adjust based on real-time economic releases.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.