Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Felix Gill and Hugo Gaston are scheduled to compete in the Nottingham 2 tennis tournament on 15 June 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. The market settlement window closes on 22 June 2026, allowing a seven-day buffer for fixture delays or rescheduling. Resolution hinges on match completion: either player advancing through victory or opponent retirement counts as a decisive outcome. Cancellation, ties, or unresolved matches beyond the seven-day window trigger 50-50 settlement.

The 100% implied probability reflects the typical fixture reliability of ATP Challenger events, which rarely face outright cancellation once draw sheets are published. Comparable Nottingham tournaments over the past three years show completion rates exceeding 95%, with weather delays at the Nottingham Tennis Centre resolved within 48 hours. Gill and Gaston have both competed in recent Challenger circuits; historical head-to-head data and recent form sheets should be cross-referenced against ATP rankings to assess whether the market is pricing in genuine uncertainty or treating this as a near-certain fixture.

Traders monitoring this market programmatically should track ATP official announcements regarding draw confirmations, player injury reports, and weather forecasts for the Nottingham region in mid-June. Conditional order logic should account for the seven-day resolution rule: if the match is delayed beyond 22 June without completion, the market settles 50-50 regardless of interim results. Real-time fixture status feeds from ATP or Flashscore can be integrated to trigger alerts if either player withdraws pre-match, which would shift the probability landscape substantially.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.