Colombia vs. Costa Rica

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Market context

Colombia and Costa Rica are scheduled to meet in a FIFA International Friendly on Monday, 1 June 2026. The match represents a routine fixture in the international football calendar, likely part of pre-tournament preparation ahead of the 2026 World Cup in North America. The current probability sitting at 100% YES reflects the straightforward nature of the event: the match is confirmed, scheduled, and both federations have publicly committed to the fixture.

Historical precedent suggests that friendly matches between established CONMEBOL and CONCACAF sides rarely fail to materialise. Colombia and Costa Rica have met multiple times in competitive and non-competitive settings without cancellations. The only material risk factors—injury crises, political instability, or force majeure—would require extraordinary circumstances to prevent play. Previous friendly fixtures between these nations have proceeded as scheduled, establishing a baseline expectation that this June encounter will follow suit.

For programmatic traders, the key monitoring points are fixture confirmation updates from FIFA, the Colombian Football Federation (FCF), and Costa Rican Football Association (FEDEFUTBOL) through their official channels. Any squad announcement delays, venue changes, or scheduling conflicts would surface first through these bodies or major sports news outlets like ESPN or Sky Sports. The settlement window closes at 23:00 UTC on 1 June, giving traders approximately 24 hours post-match to verify the event occurred. Conditional order logic should account for the negligible but non-zero probability of last-minute withdrawals, which would typically be announced 48–72 hours before kickoff.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.