Haiti vs. Scotland

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Haiti and Scotland will face each other in a FIFA World Cup group-stage match on 13 June 2026. The 62% YES probability reflects a market consensus that Haiti will win or draw, with Scotland favoured as the underdog in this fixture. Settlement occurs at 01:00 UTC on 14 June, immediately after full-time whistle.

Haiti's World Cup qualification represents their first tournament appearance since 1974, making comparative historical data sparse. Scotland has qualified for five World Cups since 1974 but has never advanced past the group stage. When examining similar fixtures—established nations versus returning qualifiers—outcomes depend heavily on preparation depth and squad familiarity. Haiti's qualification path through CONCACAF suggests competitive parity within their confederation, though Scotland's UEFA qualification involved stiffer opposition. The current probability skews toward Haiti, suggesting the market weights recent form and home-confederation advantage over historical tournament experience.

Traders should monitor squad announcements through May 2026, particularly injury confirmations for key players on either side. Scotland's domestic league concludes in early May, affecting player fitness timing. Haiti's preparation schedule and any late-stage friendlies will signal confidence levels. Fixture scheduling within the group stage—whether either team plays their final group match knowing results elsewhere—creates conditional dependencies that may shift probability significantly in the final 48 hours. Live-betting algorithms should account for early-match momentum, as opening goals in World Cup fixtures historically correlate with final outcomes at rates exceeding 70%.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.