Netherlands vs. Japan

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The FIFA World Cup 2026 group stage will feature the Netherlands and Japan in a fixture scheduled for 14 June. The 26% implied probability reflects backing for a Netherlands victory, with the remaining 74% distributed across draws and Japanese wins. This market settles on the final whistle result only, making it a straightforward three-way outcome suitable for conditional order structures that branch on group progression scenarios.

Historical matchups between these nations provide limited direct precedent—they last met competitively in 2018 World Cup qualifying, where the Netherlands won 2–0 away. The broader context matters more: the Netherlands has qualified for every World Cup since 2010 and typically ranks in the top 10 globally, whilst Japan has appeared in four consecutive tournaments but has never advanced beyond the Round of 16. In recent tournaments, the Dutch have averaged 1.8 goals per group match, whilst Japan averages 1.2. Comparable fixtures from 2022 suggest European sides with Netherlands' profile convert roughly 65–70% of matches against Asian opposition at this level.

Traders monitoring squad announcements and injury updates should track team sheets released 24 hours before kickoff; late withdrawals from either camp could shift probability significantly. Fixture scheduling within the group stage—specifically whether either team has already secured or been eliminated from knockout qualification—will influence tactical approach and intensity. Monitor official FIFA communications and federation statements through early June for any logistical changes affecting the 20:00 UTC settlement window.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.