LoL: Ultra Prime vs Oh My God (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Ultra Prime and Oh My God are scheduled to compete in a League of Legends best-of-three match within the LPL Group Nirvana format on 15 May 2026 at 05:00 ET. The settlement window closes at 15:00 ET the same day, allowing a six-hour window for match completion and result confirmation. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in one outcome or minimal trading activity; neither interpretation is reliable without volume data.

LPL Group stage matches rarely cancel outright, though scheduling delays occur during tournament restructures or technical incidents. Historical precedent shows that forfeiture resolutions—triggered when a team fails to field players or disconnects irreparably—occur in fewer than 2% of fixtures. The 50-50 tie resolution clause matters primarily for matches that begin but fail to complete within the seven-day buffer; this has occurred twice in LPL history under similar conditions. Traders using conditional order logic should flag the distinction between a cancelled match (50-50) and a completed match with a clear winner, as these trigger different settlement paths.

Programmatic monitoring should track LPL official announcements for roster changes, player availability, or venue disruptions in the 48 hours before fixture time. Recent LPL scheduling updates have been published via the official Riot Games LPL portal and team social channels. Automated feeds should capture match start confirmations and live game state; delays beyond the scheduled window compound execution risk for time-sensitive positions. The tight settlement window means real-time score verification becomes critical for resolving edge cases involving technical pauses or disputed outcomes.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.