Will Hamas agree to disarm by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hamas agreeing to disarm would require a public, credible statement from its acknowledged leadership that it will relinquish or dismantle military capability in Gaza. Recent reporting points the other way: Reuters said Hamas told mediators it would not even discuss disarmament without full Israeli withdrawal, while the BBC and AP both described Hamas as rejecting or heavily conditioning any weapons handover on later political and security steps.[1][2][5]

For a trader, the current **0%** crowd-implied price is consistent with the historical pattern of Hamas using disarmament as a bargaining chip rather than a standalone concession. Reuters reported in April that Hamas wanted guarantees on withdrawal before talks, and later coverage said the group had set further conditions including an end to targeted killings and movement on governance, while still only signalling limited openness to surrendering heavy weapons rather than a full disarmament commitment.[1][3][4] That makes the market more about watching for a formal flip in declared position than for vague diplomatic language.

Programmatically, the key catalysts are official Hamas statements, mediator readouts from Egypt, Qatar or the U.S.-backed process, and any published sequencing tied to ceasefire phases or Israeli redeployments. The AP noted that the latest plan already contemplates phased decommissioning and international oversight, so a resolution-triggering event would likely be an explicit Hamas announcement that matches the market’s threshold, not just participation in talks.[5][20] Traders running alerts or conditional orders should monitor for wording on “disarm”, “decommission”, “surrender weapons”, or “permanent beyond use”, plus any Reuters-brokered report that Hamas has accepted phase-two terms or abandoned its withdrawal precondition.[1][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Will Hamas agree to disarm by 2026? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.