Masoud Pezeshkian out by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian, elected in June 2024, faces potential removal or resignation before the end of 2026. The 43% crowd probability reflects genuine structural instability within Iran's political system, where the presidency operates under significant constraints from the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guards. Pezeshkian's mandate centres on economic reform and nuclear diplomacy, both areas where institutional resistance and external sanctions create friction. The market's two-year window captures a period when either domestic pressure or international escalation could force his exit.

Iranian presidential transitions historically occur through three mechanisms: electoral defeat, health crises, or factional purges orchestrated by the Supreme Leader's office. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's presidency (2005–2013) survived two full terms despite international isolation, whilst Hassan Rouhani completed his second term in 2021 without removal. However, Pezeshkian's reformist positioning within a hardline-dominated system creates vulnerability absent in those cases. The 43% probability sits between baseline institutional stability and genuine risk, suggesting traders view removal as plausible but not probable over 24 months.

Programmatic monitoring should track announcements from the Supreme Leader's office, health disclosures, and shifts in Revolutionary Guards messaging. Escalation in US–Iran tensions or sanctions would increase removal risk; conversely, successful nuclear negotiations would stabilise his position. The market's settlement rule—triggering on announcement rather than effective date—means traders should watch for formal statements from Iran's state media (IRNA) or parliamentary statements rather than waiting for de facto power loss. Conditional orders tied to geopolitical indices (oil prices, sanctions announcements) would capture correlated volatility efficiently.

Methodology

This page reviews Masoud Pezeshkian out by 2026? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Bot UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.