US-Iran deal text released by 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 14 June 2026, the United States and Iran jointly announced a written diplomatic agreement, with a formal signing ceremony scheduled for 19 June. The market resolves affirmatively if any substantive portion of this agreement text enters the public domain by 1 July 2026. The 90% crowd probability reflects confidence that at least partial disclosure will occur within the thirteen-day window—a reasonable baseline given modern diplomatic practice and media scrutiny.

Historical precedent suggests high disclosure likelihood. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015 saw full text publication within hours of announcement; the Iran nuclear deal framework agreement released detailed annexes immediately. Even confidential diplomatic agreements typically leak or are formally released within weeks of signing, particularly when involving major powers and multilateral dimensions. The Trump administration's 2020 Abraham Accords saw full text released the same day. However, some agreements remain partially redacted for security or commercial sensitivity—the 2015 US-Cuba normalisation deal withheld certain operational details for months.

Traders should monitor official State Department and Iranian Foreign Ministry statements for explicit release schedules. Congressional notification requirements often trigger automatic disclosure timelines; watch for Senate Foreign Relations Committee briefings or formal treaty submission notices, which typically mandate public availability. Media reporting from Reuters, AP, and regional correspondents will likely surface leaked excerpts before official release. The signing ceremony on 19 June represents the critical inflection point—agreements are most commonly published within 48–72 hours post-signature. Any delay beyond that window or statements emphasising confidentiality would materially shift resolution risk.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.