Highest temperature in NYC on June 9?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

New York City's temperature on 9 June 2026 will be recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning the highest temperature reading across the full calendar day—from midnight through 23:59 local time—determines the outcome. Traders must distinguish between daily highs and instantaneous readings; Wunderground's historical archive reports the peak temperature reached during each 24-hour period, not an average or closing value.

June temperatures at LaGuardia typically range from 75–85°F, with occasional outliers above 90°F during heat waves. Historical precedent shows that extreme heat events (above 95°F) occur roughly once every five to seven years in early June across the New York metropolitan area. The 0% crowd probability suggests either insufficient liquidity or a market structure issue rather than genuine consensus that temperatures will fall outside all available ranges. Comparable markets on weather outcomes at major airports show that early-summer temperature bands cluster around 80–89°F as the modal outcome, with tails extending into both cooler (70–79°F) and warmer (90°F+) brackets.

Programmatic traders should monitor National Weather Service forecasts released in the week preceding 9 June, particularly any heat advisories or excessive heat watches issued for the tri-state region. Upper-level ridge positioning and jet stream placement typically drive June temperature variance in this region. Data feeds from NOAA's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service and real-time airport weather stations can be integrated into conditional order logic to adjust positions as forecast confidence increases closer to the settlement date.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 9? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.