Highest temperature in Seoul on June 23?

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Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 23 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius via Wunderground data. This single daily peak determines the market resolution, with the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on that date. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a "YES" outcome suggests traders expect the temperature to fall outside the specific range being bet on, likely due to historical norms or recent cooling trends.

Historical data frames this probability sharply: Seoul’s June highs typically climb from 77°F to 81°F (25°C to 27°C), rarely exceeding 87°F (31°C) [1]. However, 2026 has seen anomalous heat, with Seoul hitting 35.6°C on 19 June—the highest June temperature in 52 years [8]. Just days prior, on 19 June 2026, Incheon recorded 91°F (32.8°C) [3], indicating the airport station is already tracking near peak seasonal values. A trader approaching this programmatically would query Wunderground’s daily history for RKSI, filtering for the maximum value across all timestamps on 23 June, then cross-reference with the 52-year anomaly to assess if the range is plausible.

Key catalysts include the North Pacific high-pressure system, which drives hot, humid summer weather in Seoul, occasionally pushing temperatures to 35°C (95°F) [5]. Traders must monitor real-time Wunderground updates for RKSI on 23 June, as cloud cover or wind shifts could suppress the peak. Recent news confirms South Korea’s heatwave intensity, with Hongcheon reaching 41.0°C nationally in July 2026 [2], though Incheon’s coastal location typically moderates extremes. No official announcements are pending, but the 19 June record suggests the airport may again approach 35°C if the high-pressure system persists [8]. A conditional order bot would trigger alerts if Wunderground’s rolling 24-hour max exceeds 34°C before 23 June noon.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 23? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Bot UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.