Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 8?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shenzhen's climate in early June sits at the threshold between late spring and early monsoon season, with daily highs typically ranging from 28–32°C. The settlement hinges on the single highest temperature recorded at Bao'an International Airport Station on 8 June 2026, pulled from Wunderground's historical database. This is a straightforward meteorological data point: no forecasting ambiguity, no institutional interpretation required. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds.

Historical June data from Shenzhen shows considerable variance. The airport station has recorded June highs between 26°C and 35°C depending on whether tropical systems approach the region. A 2023 early-June heat spike pushed temperatures to 34°C; conversely, overcast monsoon conditions in 2022 kept highs to 28–29°C. Traders evaluating this market should cross-reference multi-year Wunderground archives for Bao'an specifically, as urban microclimates and station-specific measurement protocols can skew results relative to broader city forecasts.

For programmatic approaches, the key dependency is Wunderground's data availability and methodology on the settlement date itself. Tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea during early June could suppress temperatures significantly, whilst high-pressure systems would elevate them. Monitor China Meteorological Administration seasonal outlooks and Western Pacific typhoon forecasts from late May onwards. The market's utility lies in its binary resolution against a single, verifiable source—ideal for conditional order logic tied to broader Asian weather derivatives or regional temperature indices.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.