Iran ceasefire continues through?

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Market context

The US and Iran have maintained an undeclared ceasefire following escalations in early 2024, with neither party conducting direct kinetic strikes on the other's territory for an extended period. This market tests whether that restraint holds through a specified date, with resolution hinging on official US government confirmation or overwhelming credible reporting of American military action on Iranian soil—a threshold deliberately set high to avoid ambiguity around proxy activity, cyber operations, or unconfirmed claims.

Historical precedent suggests such ceasefires are fragile but durable when both parties face offsetting costs. The 2015 nuclear accord collapse and subsequent tit-for-tat strikes (2019–2020) eventually stabilised into a pattern of signalled, limited strikes that stopped short of full escalation. The current 100% implied probability reflects market confidence that neither side has incentive to breach the status quo imminently, though this assumes no major regional shock—Israeli-Hezbollah dynamics, Houthi activity, or domestic political pressure in either capital could alter calculus rapidly.

For programmatic traders, the resolution criteria create a narrow but actionable trigger: watch for official Pentagon statements, White House press briefings, and Reuters/AP reporting on confirmed strikes. Conditional orders should track statements from Iranian officials and IRGC channels, which typically respond within hours to any action. The one-calendar-day confirmation window means markets will likely move sharply on unconfirmed reports, then correct once official channels clarify. Setting alerts on US defence department press releases and Iranian state media feeds provides the earliest signal; the market's current pricing leaves minimal margin for error, making it suitable primarily for hedging rather than directional exposure.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.