Iran charges Hormuz fees by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Iran has not yet officially announced a mandatory, general fee for all commercial vessels passing the Strait of Hormuz, though it currently operates a de facto clearance regime requiring documentation and escorts. This distinction is critical for evaluating the market’s 2% implied probability, as isolated demands or diplomatic exemptions do not satisfy the settlement criteria. Historically, Iran’s approach has been inconsistent: during the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, the Revolutionary Guards blocked passage entirely before reopening it under a provisional ceasefire, and while some vessels have paid fees in yuan, many—particularly Indian ships—transit without payment due to diplomatic intervention [2][3]. The recent peace deal reportedly allows Tehran to charge “maritime service fees” rather than tolls, but US officials insist Tehran must fulfill commitments before receiving economic benefits, creating a high barrier to formalisation [1].

Traders should monitor official announcements from Iran’s foreign ministry or the IRGC regarding a shift from the current vetting system to a universal tariff policy, as well as any changes in US Treasury sanctions guidance that might affect non-US entities paying for passage [2]. A key catalyst would be a public statement confirming that fees are now mandatory for all commercial vessels, not just a subset, and settled in a recognised currency rather than yuan. Recent reporting from Lloyd’s List confirms that while a “toll booth” system exists, not all ships are required to pay, and most major shipping companies refuse to engage with the IRGC even indirectly [3]. The settlement window ends in August 2026, so any formal policy announcement must occur before then to resolve the market as “Yes”. Programmatic approaches to this market would involve scraping Iranian government feeds and monitoring IRGC VHF transmissions for shifts in language from “clearance” to “mandatory fee”.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.