Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains the world's most critical chokepoint for maritime commerce, with roughly 21% of global petroleum passing through its 54-kilometre width annually. The question of whether additional national navies will conduct transits through these waters by mid-2026 hinges on geopolitical tensions, freedom-of-navigation operations, and regional military posturing. The current 4% implied probability reflects the baseline expectation that existing transit patterns—primarily involving US, UK, and allied navies—will persist without significant expansion to new actors.

Historical precedent suggests warship transits through the Strait correlate with specific catalysts: the 2019 tanker attacks prompted heightened US and allied naval presence; the 2022 Ukraine conflict saw renewed NATO focus on Middle Eastern security architecture. China conducted its first independent carrier task force transit in 2016, establishing a precedent for non-traditional actors. Russia has periodically transited via the Indian Ocean route but rarely through Hormuz proper. A trader monitoring this market should track announcements from Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps regarding blockade threats, US Fifth Fleet deployment schedules, and any escalation in regional proxy conflicts that might trigger new naval commitments. Recent reporting from Reuters and the Financial Times on Iranian naval exercises and Houthi activity in the Red Sea provides real-time signals; conditional orders tied to specific geopolitical events—such as major sanctions escalations or direct military incidents—would allow programmatic position adjustments without constant manual oversight.

Methodology

We track Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.