Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on whether the Islamic Republic’s core structures—Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, IRGC under clerical command—are dissolved or replaced by a fundamentally different system governing most of Iran before September 30, 2026. Current crowd-implied probability sits at just 2% YES, reflecting deep scepticism about imminent collapse despite recent upheaval.

Historically, regime change in Iran has required both external military pressure and internal mass mobilisation, as seen in the 1979 revolution and the 2026 Iran war where US and Israeli strikes targeted leadership and institutions[3]. Yet even after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s assassination on 28 February 2026, the regime swiftly installed Mojtaba Khamenei to ensure continuity, demonstrating institutional resilience[2]. Recent protests were brutally suppressed, with the regime framing dissenters as “terrorists” to deter defection[1], suggesting short-term stability despite long-term fragility[5].

Traders should programmatically monitor scheduled announcements from the Assembly of Experts, IRGC operational reports, and economic indicators like inflation or currency devaluation. A critical dependency is whether US-Israeli plans to install Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as leader materialise, as reported by the New York Times in May 2026[3]. Any sudden shift in clerical authority or IRGC loyalty would be a high-impact catalyst, warranting conditional orders triggered by verified news feeds rather than sentiment.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.