Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Kharg Island would only resolve **Yes** if Iran lost primary governmental or military control and another authority took over the island, so short of an occupation, regime transfer, or externally backed administrative change, the market should stay anchored to the status quo. The island is Iran’s main crude export terminal and handles roughly 90% of the country’s oil exports, which makes it a high-value asset but also a heavily defended one rather than an easy grab [1][2][15].

For context, markets on territorial control usually price the *ability to hold ground and govern*, not the scale of damage. Kharg has been framed in recent reporting as a strategic energy node that could be targeted or disrupted without changing sovereignty, and that distinction matters for settlement: raids, strikes, offshore blockade pressure, or temporary suspension of loading operations would not meet the rule [4][17][18]. That is why a 0% crowd-implied probability is consistent with the absence of any visible invasion or alternative governing authority.

A programmematic trader would watch for concrete control signals rather than headline risk: formal claims from Tehran, coalition statements about occupation or trusteeship, verified battlefield reports, port administration changes, or shipping notices that imply a new sovereign or military controller. Recent coverage from March 2026 still described Kharg as functioning as Iran’s export lifeline and its facilities as intact enough to remain central to the oil trade, which argues for treating routine military escalation as noise unless it is paired with durable command-and-control loss [5][7][11].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.