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What will be the top US Netflix show this week?

Five-platform snapshot of "What will be the top US Netflix show this week?" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

The Hawk: Season 1 97% Show A 50% Show B 50% Show C 50% Volume: $137K Liquidity: $75K Closes: 21 Jul 2026
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What will be the top US Netflix show this week?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 97% 3% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Place a position →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 97% 3% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Place a position →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Place a position →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Place a position →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Place a position →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
The Hawk: Season 197%
Show A50%
Show B50%
Show C50%
Show D50%
Show E50%
Show F50%
Show G50%
Other50%
Little House on the Prairie: Season 13%
I Will Find You: Limited Series1%
Worst Neighbor Ever: Season 10%
Quarterback: Season 30%
The Ultimatum: Marry or Move On: Season 40%
Dark Winds: Season 40%
Avatar: The Last Airbender: Season 20%
Sullivan's Crossing: Season 40%
Salish & Jordan Matter: Season 20%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, what will be the top us netflix show this week? stands at 97% likelihood according to current market consensus. Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). …

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
David ParkDavid ParkSports Data AnalystandOliver HughesOliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto Reporter

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