Highest grossing movie in 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the domestic calendar gross of films released in 2026, measured solely by earnings within the United States from 1 January to 31 December 2026. Any revenue generated outside this window or territory does not count toward the final tally, making release timing and domestic longevity the decisive factors for the winner.

Historical precedents from early 2026 show *The Super Mario Galaxy Movie* leading with $429.7 million domestically, followed by *Michael* at $370.2 million and *Toy Story 5* at $297.2 million[1][2]. The current 0% probability implies the market expects no single film to dominate decisively, perhaps due to a crowded slate or anticipated late-year releases that could shift the leaderboard. Programmatically, a trader would script an automated scraper to monitor Box Office Mojo’s weekly updates, calculating rolling totals and flagging films that cross the $400 million threshold, as this is the likely winning bar based on current data[5].

Key catalysts include the confirmed release schedules for major late-year blockbusters, which could disrupt the current hierarchy if they achieve strong opening weekends. Traders should watch for announcements regarding *Project Hail Mary* and *Toy Story 5* re-releases, as their domestic performance remains volatile[3]. A recent update from Box Office Mojo confirms *The Super Mario Galaxy Movie* has maintained its lead through Weekend 21, but the gap narrows if new contenders enter the market in the final quarter[4]. Conditional orders should be triggered when a film’s weekly gross exceeds $50 million, indicating a potential breakout that could alter the settlement outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.