Highest grossing movie in 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 domestic box office will crown a single highest-grossing film by calendar year's end. This market resolves to that title's name according to Box Office Mojo's gross column, with alphabetical ordering breaking any exact ties. The settlement window closes 31 December 2026, capturing only revenue earned within that calendar year regardless of a film's release date or theatrical run extending beyond it.

Historical precedent shows the annual box office winner typically grosses £600–900 million domestically in recent years. Avatar: The Way of Water led 2022 with £1.15 billion, whilst Top Gun: Maverick dominated 2023 at £1.09 billion. The 1% implied probability suggests the crowd expects significant uncertainty about which major release will perform strongest, reflecting genuine unpredictability in franchise performance, critical reception, and audience appetite. Comparable markets on individual film performance show volatility often hinges on opening weekend data and word-of-mouth momentum rather than pre-release forecasts.

Traders should monitor studio release schedules and franchise announcements throughout 2025 and early 2026. Major releases typically cluster around summer and December holidays; tracking which studios commit substantial marketing budgets to tentpole properties provides early signals. Box Office Mojo's weekly reporting allows programmatic monitoring of cumulative grosses as the year progresses, enabling conditional orders that trigger when leading contenders emerge. Industry publications including Variety and The Hollywood Reporter publish quarterly box office forecasts that flag anticipated blockbusters, though execution risk remains substantial given production delays and competitive dynamics.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.