Highest temperature in Dallas on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas will experience some maximum temperature on 13 July 2026, which will be recorded at Love Field Station and fall within one of several defined ranges. The settlement mechanism relies on historical weather data from Weather Underground, a widely-used source for meteorological records. Traders need to verify the data source directly rather than relying on secondary reporting, since Love Field's readings can differ slightly from other Dallas-area stations depending on local microclimates and sensor calibration.

July temperatures in Dallas historically cluster in the 93–98 °F range, with occasional peaks above 100 °F during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests the market may be testing edge cases or reflecting uncertainty about which temperature band will resolve. Reviewing Weather Underground's historical daily records for Dallas on comparable dates (mid-July 2015–2025) provides a baseline: the median high sits around 95 °F, with roughly 15% of years exceeding 99 °F. This distribution should inform conditional order logic if automating entry points across multiple temperature brackets.

Key variables include upper-atmosphere pressure patterns and soil moisture anomalies developing through June and early July 2026. The National Weather Service typically issues extended forecasts 10–14 days ahead; traders should monitor their outlooks from early July onwards. Programmatically, setting alerts tied to NWS heat advisories or excessive heat warnings would flag when atmospheric conditions favour the higher temperature ranges. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, so any automated data-fetching scripts should account for the time-zone offset between Dallas (Central Time) and the market's UTC deadline.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.