Internet Access restored in Iran by 2026?

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Market context

Iran's nationwide internet shutdown commenced on 28 February 2026 following military escalation involving the United States and Israel. The blackout has persisted across fixed-line and mobile networks, with Iranian authorities citing security concerns. This market requires restoration of general internet connectivity by 30 April 2026—a 61-day window from the outage's onset. The resolution criteria demand either credible international reporting consensus or Iranian government confirmation of restored access, creating a dual-pathway settlement structure that eliminates ambiguity around partial or localised connectivity claims.

Historical precedent suggests prolonged Iranian internet shutdowns typically correlate with political transitions or military events. The 2019 nationwide blackout lasted approximately one week following fuel price protests; the 2022 Mahsa Amini unrest saw selective regional outages lasting days to weeks. Sustained 60+ day blackouts remain uncommon in Iranian history, though the current geopolitical context—active military engagement—differs materially from previous domestic crises. Traders should weight the duration against comparable conflict-driven shutdowns elsewhere; Syria's 2011 outage lasted weeks, whilst Myanmar's 2021 blackout extended months but involved different state capacity constraints.

Watch for ceasefire announcements, diplomatic statements from Swiss intermediaries, or Iranian government technical assessments regarding infrastructure repair timelines. Reuters and AP newswires remain primary sources for verifying restoration claims. Programmatically, traders should monitor Iranian diaspora networks and VPN usage metrics as leading indicators; sustained high VPN demand would contradict official restoration claims. The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's assessment that military de-escalation within 61 days remains unlikely given current trajectory, though any sudden diplomatic breakthrough would shift this dramatically.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.