Market statistics
- Total volume
- $2.1M
- 24h volume
- $1.2M
- Liquidity
- $13K
- Open interest
- $82K
- Comments
- 51
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Available prediction outcomes (3)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
This market will resolve to “Yes” if definitive evidence confirming the the incident on August 10, 2019, involving Jeffrey Epstein involved foul play is released by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Statements from the U.S. government indicating that there was foul play will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from any US government agency, law enforcement agencies, and courts, how
Wikipedia Context
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Jeffrey EpsteinJeffrey Edward Epstein was an American financier and child sex offender. He began his career as a math teacher at the Dalton School, before entering the banking and finance sector. Over several decades, he made much of his fortune providing tax and estate services to billionaires, and cultivated an elite social circle of prominent individuals. In 2008, he wa
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Jeffrey Epstein and internet memesJeffrey Epstein has been the subject of multiple Internet memes and parodies, with a resurgence in late 2025. These memes have been compared to jokes about the September 11 attacks, the Holocaust and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It has also been criticized for "minimizing the suffering of victims."
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Jeffrey Epstein's birthday book
In 2003, friends and associates of American financier Jeffrey Epstein—who would later, in 2008, be convicted of sexual offenses against minors—gave him a three-volume bound album with personalized greetings for his 50th birthday, entitled The First Fifty Years. The album was assembled by Epstein's close friend, Ghislaine Maxwell, with help from assistants. S
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Jeffrey Epstein: Filthy RichJeffrey Epstein: Filthy Rich is an American web documentary television miniseries about convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. The miniseries is based on the 2016 book of the same name by James Patterson, and co-written by John Connolly and Tim Malloy. Filthy Rich was released on May 27, 2020, on Netflix. The four-part documentary features interviews with s
Methodology
We track Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by...? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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