Market statistics
- Total volume
- $696K
- 24h volume
- $451K
- Liquidity
- $40K
- Open interest
- $9K
- Comments
- 1
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
2% | 98% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
2% | 98% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Available prediction outcomes (3)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effec
Wikipedia Context
-
Mohammed bin SalmanMohammed bin Salman Al Saud, also known as MbS, is the de facto ruler of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, formally serving as Crown Prince and Prime Minister. He is the heir apparent to the Saudi throne, the seventh son of King Salman, and the grandson of the nation's founder, Ibn Saud.
-
Mohamed bin Zayed Al NahyanMohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, also known as MBZ or MbZ, is an Emirati royal and politician who has served as the third president of the United Arab Emirates and the ruler of Abu Dhabi since 2022 and was from 2014 until 2022 the de facto leader of the United Arab Emirates.
-
Mohammed bin Rashid Al MaktoumSheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum is an Emirati politician and royal who is the current ruler of Dubai, and serves as the vice president and prime minister of the UAE. Mohammed succeeded his brother Maktoum bin Rashid Al Maktoum as UAE vice president, UAE prime minister, and ruler of Dubai following the latter's death in 2006.
-
Mohammed Ben SulayemMohammed Ahmad Sultan Ben Sulayem is an Emirati former rally driver and motorsports executive who serves as president of the Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA), the governing body of many auto racing events including Formula One.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by… on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →