Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly one-third of global seaborne oil trade. A 7-day moving average of 60+ daily transit calls would represent a return to pre-disruption baseline traffic levels. Since late 2024, the corridor has experienced intermittent closures and reduced throughput owing to regional tensions, Houthi attacks on commercial vessels, and retaliatory strikes. The IMF Portwatch dataset tracks actual arrivals at major ports within the strait's shipping lanes, making it a granular measure of normalisation rather than relying on broader geopolitical declarations or insurance premium movements.

Historical precedent suggests recovery timelines vary sharply depending on trigger resolution. The 2019 tanker attacks saw traffic resume near-normal within weeks once naval escorts were deployed; the 2022 Ukraine-related disruptions took months to stabilise. The current 9% implied probability reflects market consensus that sustained 60+ daily calls remain unlikely through mid-June 2026—a 19-month window. Traders should note that even partial reopening (40–50 calls daily) would not satisfy the resolution criterion, requiring near-complete normalisation rather than mere improvement.

Watch for announcements from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, US Central Command posture changes, and Houthi capability assessments. Shipping indices like the Baltic Exchange Dirty Tanker Index and Lloyd's List Intelligence port call data provide leading indicators before IMF Portwatch publishes its 7-day averages. A trader automating this market would need to scrape IMF Portwatch releases weekly and set conditional triggers on the 60-call threshold, since resolution occurs immediately upon publication rather than at a fixed date.

Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Bot UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.