"Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Scary Movie franchise is returning to cinemas on 6 June 2026 after a 16-year hiatus, with the opening weekend (5–7 June) box office performance to be measured against historical precedent. This represents the seventh instalment in a series that launched in 2000 and generated consistent mid-range domestic returns across its run, with the final entry in 2013 opening to $17.4 million domestically. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either significant franchise fatigue, market saturation in the comedy-horror space, or genuine uncertainty about whether the film will meet theatrical release on schedule.

Comparable horror-comedies from 2024–2025 provide calibration points: films in this genre have opened between $8 million and $22 million domestically depending on marketing spend, IP recognition, and counterprogramming strength. The Scary Movie series, whilst recognisable, has lost cultural momentum over its 13-year absence. Traders monitoring this market programmatically should flag any production delays, marketing spend announcements, or competing releases scheduled for the same weekend—factors that would shift the probability distribution substantially.

Settlement hinges on The Numbers' final 3-day figures rather than studio estimates, making data integrity straightforward once the weekend closes. Conditional order logic should account for the possibility of a wide release versus limited rollout, which would dramatically alter opening-weekend expectations. The settlement window closes 8 June at noon, providing a tight resolution window.

Methodology

This page reviews "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Bot UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.