"The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Market context

The Odyssey is scheduled for theatrical release on 18 July 2026, positioning its second weekend box office performance (24–26 July) as a critical retention metric. The market resolves on final domestic figures from The Numbers' Box Office tab, using three-day weekend totals rather than studio estimates. Settlement occurs after 26 July 23:59 UTC, allowing time for official reporting before resolution.

Second-weekend holds vary dramatically by genre and opening strength. Prestige dramas typically retain 45–65% of opening weekend gross, whilst event films often drop 50–70%. The 1% implied probability reflects either very weak opening expectations or substantial uncertainty about The Odyssey's positioning within the market. Comparable mid-budget releases from 2024–2025 show second weekends ranging from £4m to £18m domestically, depending on critical reception and competition. Tracking data and early reviews—typically available by mid-July—will be essential inputs for recalibrating probabilities before settlement.

Traders should monitor release-week reviews from major outlets, which directly influence hold rates, and track competing releases scheduled for 25 July. Box office aggregators like Box Office Pro and Deadline publish weekend projections by Thursday; these forecasts often precede official studio guidance. For programmatic approaches, setting conditional orders tied to opening weekend performance (available by 21 July) allows dynamic position adjustment before the second weekend concludes. The Numbers updates figures daily during theatrical runs, so automated monitoring of their Box Office tab from 24 July onwards will capture final data before the settlement window closes.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.