What will be the top US Netflix show this week?

Platform comparison

Market context

Netflix will publish its official US Top 10 TV list on Tuesday, 21 July 2026, at 3:00 PM ET, confirming the programme with the highest total views in the United States for the week of 6–12 July. The current ranking shows *Worst Neighbor Ever* holding the #1 spot for that period, while *Little House on the Prairie* (2026) leads the subsequent week starting 14 July, creating a direct volatility point for the settlement window [1][3].

Historically, when a show holds #1 for one week but a new release dominates the following week, the market probability for the incumbent to retain the top spot drops sharply, often settling below 5% if the new title gains early traction. The current 3% YES probability aligns with this pattern, suggesting the crowd correctly anticipates a title switch rather than a repeat, as new releases frequently displace established shows within a single viewing cycle [1].

Traders should monitor the 21 July 15:00 ET update on top10.netflix.com as the primary catalyst, with a fallback resolution to "Other" if the data fails to appear by 24 July 23:59 ET [2]. Programmatically, bots should poll the official resolver endpoint every 15 minutes post-15:00 ET, triggering conditional orders only once the #1 entry is confirmed, while ignoring third-party aggregators that may lag behind the official source [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.