Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?

Platform comparison

Market context

Spider-Man: Brand New Day is already running far ahead of the threshold it needs to clear. The market resolves on The Numbers’ final domestic three-day opening weekend figure for 31 July to 2 August, and the hurdle is $357,115,007, which is Avengers: Endgame’s opening weekend gross.

For context, the current 55% YES price sits above the cautious studio-style forecast but below the most bullish trade chatter. Variety reported a $168 million opening day and said Sony was leaning towards about $325 million by Sunday, while rival estimates reached as high as $358 million, which would be enough to beat Endgame[1]. Earlier pre-release tracking was much lower, with ranges around $180 million to $280 million, and Sony itself had been quoted at roughly $190 million to $195 million[2][6][7]. Programmatically, a trader would treat this as a fast-moving box-office data feed problem: the useful inputs are preview grosses, Friday-to-Sunday pacing, and whether weekend estimates are being revised upward before The Numbers posts final non-estimate daily values.

The main catalysts are standard weekend drivers: showtime fill rates, whether Saturday holds close to Friday, and if Sunday falls off less than expected. Box-office services also flagged premium-format contribution from ScreenX and 4DX, which can matter at the margin if the film is trying to bridge a gap of only a few million dollars[3]. For a bot or conditional-order workflow, the practical approach is to watch official daily updates rather than headline estimates, because this market settles on the final The Numbers opening-weekend total, not on early studio projections or analyst tracking[1][2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.