"Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the domestic opening weekend gross of Angel Studios’ historical drama *Young Washington*, released for the 250th anniversary of the US founding, with final figures expected for the 3-day period of July 3–5. The market resolves once these values are confirmed as non-estimates, using data from The Numbers.

Historical precedents for niche indie releases on quiet July 4 weekends suggest modest openings, yet current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES appears misaligned with forecast ranges. For instance, *Supergirl* opened strongly at $37.1 million domestically but collapsed 76% in its second weekend, indicating that opening performance is the critical verdict, not subsequent drops[1]. Conversely, *Young Washington* is forecast for a domestic opening of $23 million or more, a figure consistent with PG-13 wide releases on 2,700 screens during low-competition periods[2][4]. A programmatically evaluating trader would note that 0% implies near-certainty of failure below the bracket, which contradicts the $23 million+ baseline from industry trackers[4].

Traders should monitor the finalisation of the 3-day gross on The Numbers, as the market resolves only when studio estimates are replaced by confirmed figures[2]. Key dependencies include the absence of competing major releases during this quiet weekend, which leaves the field to Angel Studios’ wide release[2]. Recent coverage highlights the film’s alignment with America’s 250th birthday, potentially boosting attendance, though budget estimates of $20 million suggest a need for strong opening performance to avoid sharp declines[6][8]. The settlement window ends 12:00 UTC on 6 July 2026, requiring timely data verification[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.