Bitcoin above 2026 on May 17?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market resolves based on Bitcoin's closing price on the Binance BTC/USDT pair at precisely 12:00 noon Eastern Time on 17 May 2026, using the 1-minute candle data available through Binance's standard charting interface. The settlement hinges on a single data point: whether that noon candle's close exceeds the strike price embedded in the title. For traders building conditional order logic or backtesting bots, this specificity matters—Binance's 1m candles are deterministic and auditable, eliminating ambiguity around which exchange or timeframe applies.

Historical Bitcoin price movements show that single-day, single-hour predictions at extreme strike levels (those triggering 0% crowd probability) typically reflect strikes far outside recent trading ranges. When BTC has traded in a bounded range for weeks or months, strikes requiring moves of 30–50% or more within a calendar day attract minimal conviction. The current 0% probability suggests the strike is substantially above Bitcoin's recent price action as of the market's creation, making this a tail-risk instrument rather than a near-the-money bet.

Traders monitoring this market should track macroeconomic calendar events in May 2026—US inflation data, Federal Reserve communications, and major corporate earnings could drive volatility into the settlement window. Real-time feeds from Binance's API allow automated monitoring of the BTC/USDT pair's behaviour in the days preceding 17 May, whilst conditional order systems can be configured to execute based on price proximity to the strike. The noon ET timestamp is liquid on major exchanges, reducing slippage concerns for reference pricing.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.