Which NFL players will be traded?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The NFL trade window operates within strict regulatory boundaries, with most player movement occurring during the offseason (February–April) and the trade deadline (early November). A player listed in this market resolves positively only if their rights transfer to another franchise before the July 2026 deadline, a relatively narrow window that excludes the primary trading periods. Mid-contract trades outside these windows remain uncommon unless a player requests a move, a team faces salary-cap constraints, or injury circumstances force roster restructuring.

Historical precedent suggests sub-5% probabilities for individual player trades outside the designated windows reflect genuine scarcity. Between 2020 and 2024, roughly 8–12 trades occurred annually during the February–November trading windows, but summer trades (May–July) averaged fewer than one per year league-wide. The 3% crowd probability aligns with this baseline, accounting for edge cases: veteran players with expiring contracts, underperforming draft picks, or teams pursuing surprise mid-summer acquisitions to address injuries.

Traders monitoring this market should track injury reports from spring training and pre-season workouts, which typically surface between April and August. Contract restructuring announcements—particularly void years or cap casualties—signal potential trade eligibility. Programmatic approaches would benefit from conditional orders tied to official NFL injury designations or team salary-cap filings, which the league publishes quarterly. Recent reporting from ESPN and NFL.com regarding roster moves should be cross-referenced against official transaction logs, as trades require formal league approval before settlement eligibility.

Methodology

This page reviews Which NFL players will be traded? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Bot UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.