How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are moving through the Strait of Hormuz again after a US–Iran agreement on 17 June ended the blockade, with commercial navigation resuming immediately and daily transit counts climbing to roughly 35–40 vessels by early July [2][5]. The market’s 82% YES probability reflects this recovery, but the settlement hinges on IMF Portwatch’s finalized daily calls for the week of 6–12 July 2026, which exclude unreported ships and only count data once the next day’s point is available [10].

Historically, Hormuz traffic has swung between near-total closure and rapid rebounds; in April 2026, passages were minimal, but by 25 June, 25 commercial vessels crossed in a single day—the highest volume since April [2]. That jump suggests the current probability is grounded in a tangible uptick rather than speculation, though the strait briefly closed again after the interim deal’s text release, showing volatility remains a key risk for any programmatic strategy tracking live dashboards [4][5].

Traders should monitor the IMF Portwatch finalisation schedule for each day in the window, as data only counts once the following day’s entry appears [10]. Watch for any sudden announcements from Iran or the US regarding port access, war-risk insurance premiums, or tanker insurance spikes, which could halt traffic; CNN’s tracker and AXSMarine’s marine intelligence are the primary sources for real-time volume updates [2]. A conditional order bot would need to ingest these feeds and adjust exposure if daily counts dip below the 35–40 ship/day baseline established in early July [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.