Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz has still been operating well below normal, and this market resolves only when IMF Portwatch’s 7-day moving average of ship arrivals reaches at least 60, so the practical question is whether weekly throughput can sustain a pre-crisis level rather than merely spike for a day. Reuters reported in April that traffic was running at less than 10% of typical volumes, while later reporting in June said flows had improved after a preliminary US-Iran agreement but remained far below pre-war levels and vulnerable to renewed disruption.[5][8]

For context, the key reference point is that normal conditions are broadly around 60 commercial transits a day, which is why traders are watching for a durable return to that band rather than a symbolic reopening.[6] In early April, some trackers showed only a handful of vessels a day, and even after a ceasefire-related reopening, New York Times reporting said the flow quickly fell back to near standstill, underscoring how fragile recovery can be when insurance, security, and port scheduling are still unsettled.[9][11]

A power-user would treat this as a data-feed problem: monitor IMF Portwatch publication timing, compare the 7-day average against the 60 threshold, and automate alerts for any sustained move above the line. The main catalysts are diplomatic changes, ceasefire enforcement, naval or mine-clearing developments, and any fresh attacks on commercial shipping; ABC reported on 30 June that renewed strikes had exposed the fragility of the ceasefire, even as some analysts still saw a possible return towards near-normal traffic by September if attacks stopped.[10] For a bot or conditional-order setup, the most useful trigger is not headline sentiment but the published Portwatch series crossing and holding above the settlement rule.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.