Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil exports, has seen commercial traffic collapse by over 95% since early 2026 due to attacks on vessels and Iranian obstructions, with daily crossings falling from roughly 150 to single digits. Iran has reportedly approved limited passage for GCC and European ships via a controlled route, charging approximately $2 million per vessel, while oil tanker flows remain near standstill and most detected transits involve Iran-linked or high-risk ships using spoofed signals to evade targeting[1][7].

Historically, the strait handled over 30,000 vessels annually before the Iran war, making the current 45% crowd-implied probability for any transit call by July 31, 2026, a reflection of persistent instability rather than a baseline expectation of normalcy[6][7]. A power-user evaluating this market programmatically would script a bot to monitor IMF PortWatch’s weekly Tuesday 9 AM ET data revisions, flagging any finalized daily arrival count equal to or above the listed threshold, while cross-referencing MarineTraffic data for signal spoofing patterns that might indicate unreported transits[2][8].

Traders must watch for Iranian diplomatic announcements regarding fee adjustments or route expansions, as well as scheduled security operations by regional navies that could temporarily clear the controlled route. Recent reports confirm Iran’s approval of passage for foreign ships, suggesting a potential catalyst for increased traffic if the $2 million fee becomes negotiable or if international pressure forces route liberalisation[1]. The settlement window ending 23:59 UTC on 31 July 2026 requires continuous monitoring of PortWatch’s real-time satellite data, which updates monthly with weekly revisions, to capture any sudden surge in finalized transit calls[2][9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

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On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

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A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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