Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tiger Woods has no known federal criminal convictions that would make him eligible for a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve. Woods was arrested in May 2017 on a DUI charge in Jupiter, Florida, but pleaded no contest to reckless driving—a state-level misdemeanour—and completed a diversion programme. A presidential pardon applies exclusively to federal offences, making this market's resolution contingent on either an undisclosed federal conviction emerging or Trump issuing an unprecedented pardon for someone without federal criminal liability.

Historical precedent suggests presidential pardons cluster around political allies, family members, and figures with direct ties to the sitting president's administration or legal exposure. Trump's 2020 pardon list included associates like Paul Manafort and Roger Stone, but not individuals without federal convictions or personal relationships to Trump. Woods and Trump have golfed together and maintain a cordial public relationship, yet this falls short of the patronage patterns that typically precede pardons. The 2% implied probability reflects the base rate of pardoning someone with no federal case to resolve.

Traders monitoring this market should track any federal indictment filings against Woods—the only realistic catalyst for resolution toward "Yes." Conditional order logic would flag news from federal courts or Department of Justice announcements. The settlement window extends to June 2026, covering Trump's first term, but absent a federal criminal charge, the probability should remain anchored near zero. Programmatic monitoring of SEC filings, court dockets, and official White House pardon announcements would be the efficient approach to tracking material developments.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.