Starmer out by 2025?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Keir Starmer's tenure as Prime Minister depends on maintaining either a working majority in Parliament or sufficient confidence among Labour MPs to govern. The market tests whether he remains in post through 2025, with resolution triggered immediately upon any announced departure—whether through resignation, loss of confidence votes, or electoral defeat—regardless of the effective date.

UK Prime Ministers have historically faced removal through three mechanisms: electoral loss (most common), internal party revolt, or personal resignation. Margaret Thatcher's 1990 departure followed sustained backbench pressure; Liz Truss lasted 49 days before resigning under market and party pressure; Boris Johnson faced serial ministerial resignations before stepping down in September 2022. Labour's current majority of 163 seats (as of the 2024 election) provides substantial buffer against routine defections, though sustained economic underperformance, major policy failures, or coordinated backbench action could erode support. The 0% implied probability reflects market confidence in Starmer's near-term stability given the parliamentary arithmetic and absence of immediate succession machinery within Labour.

Traders monitoring this market should track quarterly economic data releases, particularly inflation and employment figures due in spring and autumn 2025, alongside any major legislative defeats or significant ministerial resignations. The Budget scheduled for spring 2025 will test both fiscal credibility and internal party cohesion. Programmatically, conditional orders tied to specific announcements—resignation statements, confidence vote declarations, or dissolution notices—offer precision entry points. News aggregation from BBC, The Guardian, and Sky News political desks provides the credible reporting consensus required for resolution, making real-time monitoring of parliamentary statements and official Number 10 communications essential for position management.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.