Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Israel will hold legislative elections on 27 October 2026, with the next Prime Minister to be determined by coalition negotiations following the ballot. The market resolves only when an individual is formally sworn in—interim or caretaker arrangements do not trigger settlement. The 32% crowd probability reflects significant uncertainty around both electoral outcomes and the coalition dynamics that typically determine who leads government formation in Israel's multi-party system.

Historical precedent suggests Israeli elections rarely produce clear mandates. In 2021, Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud won the largest bloc but lost the premiership when opposition parties formed a coalition under Naftali Bennett; in 2022, Netanyahu returned despite Likud gaining fewer seats than the opposition. Coalition arithmetic, not vote share, determines the outcome. Current polling suggests fragmentation across right-wing, centre, and left-wing blocs, meaning the 32% probability likely reflects distributed expectations across multiple candidates rather than confidence in any single successor. Traders should model coalition scenarios programmatically by tracking bloc strength across polling cycles and monitoring which parties signal willingness to partner.

Key catalysts include monthly polling releases, party leadership changes, and any early election triggers—the market immediately resolves if elections occur before October 2026. Watch for announcements regarding Netanyahu's legal status, as ongoing trials have shaped coalition calculations in previous cycles. The Knesset's composition and coalition thresholds will become clearer in the months preceding the election, allowing conditional order strategies tied to specific seat distributions or bloc combinations.

Methodology

This page reviews Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Bot UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.