Who will enter Iran by June 30?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is whether a named individual physically enters Iran’s terrestrial territory before the end of June 2026, a scenario rendered highly improbable by the current 0% crowd-implied probability. This reflects the entrenched hostility between the US and Iran, where diplomatic ties were severed in 1979 and have remained frozen for decades, with only rare, high-stakes exceptions like the 1981 Algiers Accords or the 2015 nuclear deal[1][3]. Historically, US officials visiting Iran have been limited to senior military figures or negotiators under extraordinary conditions, such as General Robert Huyser’s 1979 mission, and even then, such visits were short-term policy manoeuvres rather than routine engagements[2]. No sitting US House member or Senator has visited Iran since the revolution, making any such entry a geopolitical anomaly that would require a dramatic shift in bilateral relations.

A power-user evaluating this market programmatically should monitor scheduled diplomatic announcements, presidential travel itineraries, and any conditional orders tied to breakthrough negotiations, as these are the only catalysts that could alter the 0% baseline. Recent declassified records from the National Security Archive confirm that every US president has reached out to Tehran for short-term objectives, suggesting that a visit remains theoretically possible but contingent on specific dependencies like a new nuclear accord or hostage exchange[2]. Traders should watch for official statements from the White House or State Department regarding Iran policy, as well as any leaks from the Axis of Resistance, which could signal a sudden opening[5]. Without a concrete announcement or verified schedule change, the market remains a null bet, and any automated strategy should treat the 0% probability as a hard floor until new data emerges.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.