Market statistics
- Total volume
- $555K
- 24h volume
- $539K
- Liquidity
- $6K
- Open interest
- $22K
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
2% | 98% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
2% | 98% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome snapshot
Current YES/NO probability from the live order book.
Market context
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information fro
Wikipedia Context
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Lai Ching-teLai Ching-te, also known as William Lai, is a Taiwanese politician and physician who has served as the eighth president of the Republic of China since 2024. A member of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), he has been the party's chairman since 2023.
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Lai Chin-linLai Chin-lin is a Taiwanese politician. He was elected to the National Assembly in 1991 and served until 1999, when he took office as a member of the Legislative Yuan. He left the Legislative Yuan in 2004 and became vice minister of the Council of Labor Affairs.
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Lai Ching (constituency)Lai Ching is one of the 37 constituencies in the Kwun Tong District of Hong Kong which was created in 1991.
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Lai Ching Lung
Lai Ching Lung is a Hong Kong medical physician. Lai studied at Diocesan Boys' School, and subsequently in the Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine for Bachelor of Medicine and Bachelor of Surgery in 1970. Asteroid 26743 Laichinglung, discovered by Bill Yeung in 2001, was named after him. The official naming citation was published by the Minor Planet Center on 6
Methodology
This page reviews Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? on PolyGram
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