Starmer out by...?

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Market context

Keir Starmer became Prime Minister in July 2024 following Labour's general election victory. This market tests whether he will remain in post through the end of 2025, with any announcement of resignation or removal before 31 December resolving the market to Yes immediately, regardless of the effective date. The settlement window captures nearly the full calendar year, making this a medium-term confidence gauge on his tenure.

UK Prime Ministers typically face removal through either party-initiated leadership challenges or electoral defeat. Starmer's position differs from recent predecessors: he commands a substantial parliamentary majority and faces no general election until 2029. Historical precedent suggests sitting Prime Ministers with working majorities rarely depart mid-term absent major scandal or party revolt. Liz Truss's 49-day tenure in 2022 remains the shortest; Boris Johnson faced sustained backbench pressure over partygate before resigning in September 2022. The current 0% implied probability reflects market confidence in Starmer's stability relative to recent volatility.

Traders monitoring this market should track Labour party cohesion, polling trends, and any significant policy reversals that might trigger backbench dissent. The Spring 2025 fiscal announcements and any major legislative defeats would serve as early warning indicators. Recent reporting on internal party tensions over policy direction provides baseline context, though no immediate catalysts suggest imminent departure. Programmatically, this market functions as a binary hedge against unexpected political upheaval; conditional orders tied to major economic data releases or parliamentary confidence votes would capture tail-risk scenarios efficiently.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.