Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The practical trigger is straightforward: the Strait of Hormuz needs a 7-day moving average of **60 or more ship arrivals** on IMF Portwatch for this market to settle Yes, and anything below that keeps it in No territory. In programme terms, this is a clean threshold watch: poll the IMF Portwatch “Arrivals of Ships” series daily, compute the rolling seven-day average, and alert on the first published day that clears 60 before 31 August 2026.

The probability sits low because traffic has been well short of pre-war norms for months. Reuters reported just seven ships a day in early April versus about 140 normally, and later updates still described flows as a trickle, with around six to seven vessels a day in late April.[2][4] Even when traffic improved after the June ceasefire, Reuters and other trackers still put daily transits materially below normal, with estimates ranging from the mid-20s to around 40 a day, and July saw renewed disruption after fresh attacks and a further blockade warning.[7][9][14][17]

For traders using bots or conditional orders, the key catalysts are not just headlines but *shipping-specific* developments that can move the rolling average quickly: formal ceasefire extensions, any reopening or reclosure announcement, mine-clearing or corridor-safety updates, insurer guidance, and changes in tanker routing by major carriers. Reuters has repeatedly shown that Hormuz traffic can jump or collapse within days when military conditions change, so a rules-based setup should watch both the IMF publish time and the underlying daily count, since the market resolves only when the platform’s own series prints the threshold, not when traffic merely looks improved elsewhere.[4][7][14][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by 2026? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

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