Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world issue is whether shipping through the Strait of Hormuz gets back to a near-normal level of about 60 daily transits on IMF PortWatch’s 7-day moving average before 15 July 2026. In practical terms, that means the market is keyed to a specific data series rather than headlines alone, so a power-user would watch the published moving average and, if automating around it, trigger on the first PortWatch reading at or above 60 rather than waiting for any later confirmation.[13]

The recent benchmark is sharply negative. Reuters reported just three commodity vessels on 17 July, the fewest daily transits since May, after renewed U.S.-Iran escalation and a resumed blockade disrupted traffic.[2] Other reporting showed counts falling from the low 20s before mid-July to single digits by 16 July, while Lloyd’s List Intelligence said non-Iranian linked transits dropped to 25 in the week 13-19 July from 108 a week earlier, with traffic down about 90% year-on-year.[1][6] Kpler has also pushed its normalisation view into early 2027, which helps explain why the crowd has priced the return-to-normal condition at 0% YES.[11]

For catalysts, the main drivers are security announcements, any pause or re-escalation in U.S.-Iran actions, and shipping-company routing decisions that feed through to AIS-based PortWatch counts. Reuters and Lloyd’s both described traffic remaining at a trickle even after a brief pause in fighting, with little evidence of a sustained rebound along the southern Omani corridor.[15][6] Programmatically, the cleanest approach is to poll IMF PortWatch, store the 7-day average as a time series, and alert on any print at or above 60, because a short-lived daily bounce is irrelevant if it does not lift the moving average past the threshold.[13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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Resolution & payout

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UK Frequently Asked Questions

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