Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial shipping, with daily transits plummeting from a pre-crisis average of over 150 vessels to fewer than ten non-Iranian ships during the 2026 crisis[2]. Although a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran in June 2026 guaranteed immediate reopening and a 60-day toll-free window, traffic has only recovered to roughly 42% of normal peacetime levels, averaging around 28 vessels over the last five days[6]. Historical data confirms that even after the April ceasefire, movement remained negligible, with only 45 ships passing through in the weeks following the agreement[4].

Programmatically, a trader evaluating this 1% market should script a monitor for the IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average, setting a conditional buy order only if the daily count breaches 60. The primary catalyst is the July 19 deadline for the US to fully lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports, a prerequisite for the agreement’s restoration clause to function[5]. However, uncertainty persists regarding the clearance of mines and technical military challenges, which the US-Iran deal explicitly acknowledged could delay a return to prewar volumes beyond the stipulated 30-day window[7]. Traders must watch for AXSMarine or Kpler daily transit reports; if the average fails to sustain above 60 before the settlement date, the market resolves to No.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.