Trump declassifies new UFO files by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Trump administration has already begun releasing declassified UAP and UFO material, including a first tranche posted on 8 May and a further release reported by NBC and other outlets on 9 May. That makes the market’s current 100% implied probability unsurprising: the event has effectively occurred unless the contract has a stricter timing or scope edge case, such as only counting a later, specific tranche or files not covered by the initial programme.

For comparison, past UAP disclosure efforts have usually been partial and staggered rather than one-off. The current programme, set out on the Department of War’s UAP portal, says releases will continue on a rolling basis every few weeks after multi-agency review, with dozens of agencies involved and records spanning decades. A power user reading this programmatically would treat the market as a near-certain binary on the existence of at least one qualifying release, while still checking the exact settlement language for exclusions around previously public material, reposted clips, or documents already leaked elsewhere.

The main catalysts now are the cadence of new tranches, any formal statements from the Department of War, ODNI, or the White House, and whether later drops add genuinely new records rather than duplicates. The war.gov page explicitly describes an ongoing declassification pipeline, which creates recurring headlines and reduces uncertainty. News coverage from NBC on 9 May confirmed the first release, while subsequent outlet reports on 8 May described “never-before-seen” footage, both of which are directly relevant to any automated monitoring of fulfilment.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.