Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to commercial shipping as of early July 2026, with traffic suspended following a brief reopening on 21 April that was reversed the next day. Current transit counts hover near historic lows, with only 35 vessels recorded on 7 July after falling sharply from 41 on 1 July, far below the 60-ship threshold required for this market to resolve YES [2][10].

Historical precedents for rapid normalisation in this corridor are scarce; previous disruptions, such as those linked to attacks on commercial ships starting late February 2026, resulted in sustained reductions rather than quick rebounds [9]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability aligns with this pattern, as the strait has been closed for over two months with no credible signal of a permanent reopening, making a return to 60+ daily transits by mid-July an outlier event rather than a baseline expectation [2].

Traders monitoring this market should track IMF Portwatch’s daily 7-day moving average updates and watch for official announcements regarding peace talks or insurance premium adjustments, which often precede throughput recovery [2]. Recent data from Windward AI confirms the downward trajectory, noting a drop from 42 vessels on 6 July to 35 on 7 July, suggesting the bottleneck is tightening rather than easing [10]. Programmatically, bots should query the Portwatch endpoint hourly and flag any 7-day average crossing 55 as a precursor signal, though current trends indicate the 60 threshold remains unattainable within the settlement window.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.