Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are effectively barred from the Strait of Hormuz following Iran’s Revolutionary Guards closure on 2 March 2026, triggered by US–Israeli strikes and the assassination of Ali Khamenei. Daily transits for non-Iranian vessels have collapsed to single digits, down from a pre-crisis average exceeding 153 per day, with traffic diminishing by over 95 percent since the conflict began [1][2].

Historically, even after the 8 April ceasefire, only 45 ships passed through in the subsequent weeks, indicating that diplomatic agreements do not instantly restore throughput [2]. The current 4% YES probability reflects this lag; while a memorandum of understanding reached on 14 June pushed crossings to 37–51 vessels on a single day—42.5% of normal levels—averages remain far below the 60-vessel threshold required for resolution [6]. Programmatic traders should script scrapers against IMF Portwatch’s API to monitor the 7-day moving average, flagging deviations when daily counts exceed 28, the recent five-day peak [6].

Key catalysts include the US obligation to lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports by 19 July, a deadline that pressures Iran to restore pre-war traffic levels within the same window [8]. Traders must watch for IRGC case-by-case approvals for neutral nations like India and China, which currently permit limited transit after cargo disclosure [1]. Any announcement confirming the end of the “selective blockade” or a surge in tanker movements past the 60-vessel daily mark would be the primary trigger for a YES resolution, though current data suggests this remains unlikely before July 31 [1][3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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How does resolution work?

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