Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is whether the United States launches a ground offensive to seize and control Iranian territory before the end of 2026. Recent history shows the US has executed massive air campaigns against Iran, including Operation Epic Fury in February 2026 which targeted nuclear sites and killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, yet these strikes stopped short of establishing territorial control [1][6][8]. A trader evaluating this market programmatically should note that while air power has been deployed with impunity, the historical pattern reveals tactical success paired with strategic stalemate, as strikes have consistently failed to alter Iranian behaviour or force a lasting diplomatic settlement [4].

To assess the 20% crowd-implied probability, a bot must monitor specific catalysts indicating a shift from air strikes to ground invasion, such as official announcements of troop deployments or changes in the stated objective from regime degradation to territorial occupation. The settlement window closes on 31 December 2026, meaning any escalation must occur within the remaining five months of the year. Traders should watch for dependencies like the outcome of the sixty-day follow-on negotiation period mentioned in the recent memorandum of understanding, which deferred resolution on nuclear concerns [5]. A sudden breakdown in these talks or a new directive from Washington to pursue regime change via occupation would be the primary signal for a conditional order to buy YES.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.