Trump out as President by August 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump would need to resign, be removed, or otherwise permanently stop being president before 31 August 2026 for this market to pay out “Yes”. At 1%, the crowd is pricing this as an extreme tail event, which is consistent with the basic structure of the contract: it is not asking whether he faces political pressure, only whether there is a qualifying departure within the deadline.[2]

For comparison, resignation/exit markets on Trump have typically sat well below 10% unless there was a specific, time-sensitive catalyst, such as a major announcement or a sudden health-related headline. Recent coverage noted a brief surge in resignation odds on another market after an Oval Office press conference was scheduled, before the price faded again, which is a useful reminder that short-lived speculation can move these contracts without changing the underlying base rate much.[1] For a bot-driven workflow, that means the “No” side is usually the default hold, with “Yes” only becoming attractive when news flow creates a sharp dislocation from the baseline.

The key triggers to monitor are formal resignation language, an announced removal process, or any verified statement that he will cease to be president before the deadline, because this market resolves on announcement rather than implementation if the departure is confirmed in advance.[2] Programmatically, traders would normally wire alerts to White House scheduling, wire-service headlines, and any abrupt changes in the president’s public calendar, then route those into conditional orders or auto-cancel logic. The contract’s permanent-removal rule also matters: temporary incapacity or short-lived transfer of power would not be enough.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Trump out as President by August 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.