How many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 1 - June 7?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Global seismic activity will determine whether Earth experiences one or more earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater during the seven-day window of 1–7 June 2026. The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program maintains a searchable catalogue of all recorded seismic events, updated in near-real time, which serves as the authoritative resolution source. A magnitude 5.5 event represents moderate-to-strong shaking capable of causing damage to poorly constructed buildings; such quakes occur somewhere on Earth roughly once every few days on average, though distribution is highly uneven across tectonic zones.

Historical frequency data reveals that a single week without any 5.5+ magnitude earthquakes is statistically uncommon but not rare. Between 2015 and 2024, the USGS recorded approximately 15–18 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or above per month globally, translating to roughly 3–4 per week. The current crowd probability of 0% reflects either extreme confidence in elevated seismic activity during this specific week or a systematic underestimation of baseline occurrence rates. Traders evaluating this market should cross-reference the USGS historical search tool to establish their own baseline expectations rather than relying on crowd sentiment alone.

For programmatic monitoring, the USGS provides structured data feeds and API access to earthquake records, enabling automated tracking of events as they occur. The settlement window closes 8 June 2026 at 03:59 UTC, allowing a brief grace period for data processing delays. Traders should note that preliminary magnitude estimates sometimes shift downward after detailed analysis; a reported 5.6 event that later revises to 5.4 would not count toward resolution.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.