England vs. Costa Rica

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Active sub-markets

Market context

England will face Costa Rica in a FIFA International Friendly on 10 June 2026. The match forms part of the fixture calendar ahead of the 2026 World Cup in North America, scheduled for late summer. An 11% implied probability for a Costa Rica victory reflects the substantial gap in FIFA ranking and recent competitive form between the two nations. England currently sits in the top ten globally, whilst Costa Rica ranks outside the top 30 and has not qualified for a World Cup since 2014.

Historical precedent suggests friendlies involving established European sides against Central American opponents typically favour the higher-ranked team. England's last three matches against teams ranked below 25th saw wins in two and a draw in one. Costa Rica's recent record includes defeats to Mexico and Panama in CONCACAF qualifying rounds, though they did secure a Nations League promotion in 2024. The 11% price implies roughly a 1-in-9 chance of a Costa Rica upset, consistent with historical underdog conversion rates in comparable fixtures.

Traders monitoring this market should track squad announcements from both federations, typically released five to seven days before friendlies. Injury updates to England's key players—particularly defensive personnel—could shift the probability upward. Costa Rica's preparation intensity and any late-stage fixture cancellations would warrant conditional order adjustments. The settlement window closes at 20:00 GMT on match day, allowing for live-trading strategies based on team sheets released on the morning of the fixture.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.